AFC Championship Preview

It's been quite the unusual NFL playoffs so far this year. The first round featured several notable upsets, including the Baltimore Ravens' 33-14 thumping of the New England Patriots and the New York Jets' 24-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. In last week's divisional round, though, chalk largely prevailed; three of the four No. 1 and No. 2 seeds won in decisive fashion. The lone underdog to continue on was the fifth-seeded Jets, who beat the second-seeded San Diego Chargers 17-14 in the weekend's only close game.

This sets up Sunday afternoon's AFC championship game featuring the Jets and top-seeded Indianapolis Colts and Sunday evening's NFC championship game featuring the top-seeded New Orleans Saints and second-seeded Minnesota Vikings. What will happen this weekend? Will top seeds continue to prevail, or can the Jets and Vikings pull off upsets? Will aerial offence dominate, or will we see the triumph of smashmouth football? For some informed opinions on the matter, I spoke with a cast of NFL bloggers. The preview of the AFC game is below; go here for the preview of the NFC game.

One interesting subplot in the Colts-Jets matchup is that the Colts were somewhat responsible for the Jets being in the playoffs in the first place. In fact, they were such a long shot to make the playoffs after a 10-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 that head coach Rex Ryan thought they were knocked out of the playoff picture. They could have been knocked out for good the next week against the undefeated Colts, but Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell elected to pull quarterback Peyton Manning and many of his other starters in the third quarter with Indianapolis leading 15-10. Rookie backup quarterback Curtis Painter fumbled once and threw a costly interception, and the Jets went on to win 29-15 to keep their playoff hopes alive. They then clobbered the Bengals (who had nothing to play for) 37-0 in the final week to seal the deal, and beat Cincinnati again in the playoffs. After last week's win over San Diego, they'll now face the Colts again.

Samer Kalaf, who edits the NFL blog Second-String Fullback, said he thought from the start that the Colts' decision to take their foot off the gas could be costly.

"I feel like the decision by Colts head coach Jim Caldwell to rest the starters against the Jets was an incredibly terrible decision," he said. "The Colts had a chance to be the second team to go undefeated in a 16-game regular season. They decided to give that up for extra rest. That was a terrible decision and I thought it would bite them in the ass. I think it has now as they face the Jets in the AFC Championship, and I stand by my opinion and will be incredibly eager to see how their decision plays out in the game on Sunday."

Much of the debate around Caldwell's decision considers the merits of resting starters. Some have argued that Indianapolis' 20-3 thrashing of Baltimore last weekend proves the Colts were wise to take it easy for the last few weeks of the season, but Kalaf doesn't see it that way.

"I don't feel like it really had an impact on the Colts' win against the Ravens," he said. "Joe Flacco isn't a dominant quarterback and the Colts were able to contain the Baltimore run game. I feel they would have been able to do it even if they were on normal rest."

In fact, Kalaf argued that the Jets' upset of the Chargers suggests taking it easy may hurt more than it helps. The Chargers were dominant for the second half of the season, but didn't play particularly hard in their final game against Washington with nothing on the line and then had a bye week before facing the Jets. Kalaf said the Chargers' talent was enough for them to advance deep into the playoffs, but their offence looked out of sync against the Jets.

"This season, I expected the Chargers to go very far, considering them for an AFC Championship and possibly a Super Bowl," he said. "The way they played against the Jets last week proves how rest doesn't mean anything, and how it can actually hurt a team. San Diego never seemed to be synchronized while New York was making outstanding plays throughout the whole game."

Some have suggested that the Colts' beneficence in allowing the Jets to make the playoffs might pay off for them, as 13-3 San Diego looked like a more formidable opponent than 9-7 New York. Kalaf said the records may be deceiving, though, as the Jets' strengths could prove more difficult for Indianapolis to counter.

"Matching both teams up with the Colts, I would honestly have to say the Jets would have a better chance of defending against Indianapolis," he said. "The Chargers have a great offence, but their defence is near the middle of the league in most categories. The Jets are much better at defending, especially passing defense with shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, and that will stifle Peyton Manning and the Colts. Reggie Wayne will be very scarcely available to him and Indianapolis could be forced to turn to rushing the ball, which would be unfortunate for them as they are one of the worst running teams in the league this season."

Continue to Page 2

Leave your comment:
Name:
Email:
URL:
Comments:
	Security Code:
	Note: Emails will not be visible. Any content deemed inappropriate or offensive may be edited or deleted. No HTML code is allowed. Please use BBCode to format your text. URLs will be auto-linked.