Right now, two things appear to be true. One is that unless Dr. House remembers something right this very instant (or at least within the hour), somebody will die. The other is that Chris Bosh is a terrific rebounder, the best in the league.
Why is that? Basketball-Reference is showing that so far this season, Bosh has 293 boards, both the highest on the Raptors and the NBA.
Table A - Total NBA Rebound Leaders
| Chris Bosh (Tor) | 293 | |
| Dwight Howard (Orl) | 253 | |
| Gerald Wallace (Cha) | 247 | |
| Joakim Noah (LAC) | 232 |
But in a vacuum, rebounds don't mean a lot - they combine both offensive and defensive, which when you think about it, are completely different things: one gives you a possession while the other extends a possession, giving you another chance at a basket.
So let's break them up. The bulk of Bosh's boards are on the defensive end - as should be expected - but he also puts up good numbers on the other side of the court. His 94 offensive rebounds ties him with Zach Randolph for the NBA lead.
Table B - NBA Offensive Rebound Leaders
| Chris Bosh (Tor) | 94 | |
| Zach Randolph (Mem) | 94 | |
| Ben Wallace (Det) | 88 | |
| Brendan Haywood (Was) | 86 |
It's also a team high, too.
Table C - Toronto Raptor Offensive Rebound Leaders
| TRB | ORB | |||
| Chris Bosh | 293 | 94 | ||
| Andrea Bargnani | 149 | 33 | ||
| Amir Johnson | 121 | 53 | ||
| Hedo Turkoglu | 110 | 10 |
An aside. Remember what I said above? Look at Hedo Turkogolu's numbers - he's fourth on the team in rebounds, almost exclusively (90%!) from defensive numbers. How do the others look? About a quarter of Andrea Bargnani's rebounds come on the offensive side, while about a third of Bosh's do. Amir Johnson though… Almost half (44 per cent) of his come on the offensive glass. Neat.
But just looking at rebounds, it doesn't mean much. Now if there was a way to put these in context...
Which there is: by measuring them against the Raptors' missed shots and the other teams rebounds. Think of it this way. Each missed shot could result in an offensive rebound. What percentage of these potential rebounds is Bosh getting? And, most importantly, how does he compare to the other leaders (see Table A).
As of last week, the Raptors have taken 1949 shots and missed 1049. Opponents got 728 defensive rebounds from those shots, while the Raptors grabbed 271 offensive rebounds, for a total of 999 rebounds (the other shots? I assume they weren't rebound-able. I won't count them).
Let's crunch some numbers.
Table D - Offensive Rebounding Percentage, Toronto Raptors
| Total rebounds | ORB | ORB % | ||||
| Toronto Raptors (Team) | 999 | 271 | X | |||
| Chris Bosh | X | 94 | 12.96 | |||
| Andrea Bargnani | X | 33 | 5.01 | |||
| Amir Johnson | X | 53 | 15.16 |
What do those numbers mean? When he's on the court, Bosh grabs about 13 per cent of all the possible offensive rebounds. Bargnani, who nobody calls a good rebounder, grabs about five per cent.
But it's Amir Johnson who stands out: his 15 per cent is pretty good - better than Dwight Howard's (13.2). To be fair, Johnson's numbers are skewed a little by his limited minutes (another skewed example: Pops Mensah-Bonsu's 19.0 ORB%).
But how does Bosh compare to the rest of the league leaders?
Table E - Offensive Rebounding Percentage, League ORB leaders
| Total Rebound-able | ORB | ORB % | ||||
| Chris Bosh (Tor) | 999 | 94 | 12.96 | |||
| Zach Randolph (Mem) | 848 | 94 | 14.98 | |||
| Brendan Haywood (Was) | 825 | 86 | 15.1 | |||
| Ben Wallace (Det) | 857 | 88 | 16.1 |
Without digging too deeply into the numbers, looks like this: despite being tied for the most boards, Bosh doesn't have the greatest offensive rebounding percentage; when it comes to extending a possession, he's a tad behind the four players immediately behind him on the offensive rebounding chart.
Why does this matter? Offensive Rebounding Percentage is what's known as a rate statistic: it measures the rate at which Bosh (and Randolph and Bargnani) grab rebounds. Essentially, it helps add context to the stats.
For instance, just looking at the leaderboard shows that Bosh is on top. It doesn't show that he's played over 100 more minutes or 100 more potential rebounds to grab this season than the other four.
And what does it prove? When you consider what his offensive boards mean to the team's offensive rebounding percentage, his numbers don't seem too bad - Bosh is in the top 10 for the NBA, I'd imagine - but they're not as good as they seem, either.
It's true he's a good rebounder. He's grabbed more off the offensive glass than almost anybody else, no easy feat.
But is he the best rebounder in the NBA? He's not far off, but he's not there either. In fact, he might actually be the second-best rebounder on his team.
Oh, and Dr. House? He saved the day, the person lived.
Note: All base statistics from Basketball-Reference.com.
Current Comments
13 comments so far (post your own)...that's still a great total rebounding rate.
Posted by Vic De Zen on Monday, December 14, 2009 @ 3:43pm
if you want to be a little more accurate in the ORBD% (in terms of how "good" a rebounder is) you should adjust the total available offensive rebounds available based on the rebounder's shooting volume (and where the shots are being taken from).
wallace and haywood have the opportunity for better numbers because they are positioned for more rebounds, as they don't take outside jump shots (where they likely won't be able to get an offensive board) and instead take interior shots (where it becomes easier to make your own miss).
this actually makes z-bo pretty impressive, since he already has a huge unadjusted ORBD% *and* has a real love of jacking shots from outside.
Posted by brendan on Monday, December 14, 2009 @ 4:58pm
Joakim is on CHI not the Clippers
Posted by A on Monday, December 14, 2009 @ 5:30pm
Of course Noah plays in Chicago... now, but this article is a glimpse into the future where the Bulls send Noah packing in an effort to preserve the apathy and general lack of effort that Vinny Del Negro is hoping to ride all the way into the playoffs. He's crampin' their style.
Alright, fine, typo fixed.
Posted by Austin Kent on Monday, December 14, 2009 @ 5:58pm
The rest of those players dont have the offense run thru them. Which makes it easier to slip in for offensive rebounds. Bosh takes the most shots on his team. A mix of jumpers and shots near the hoop.
Posted by Yusuf on Monday, December 14, 2009 @ 8:51pm
This is quite silly...It\'s like trying to prove that Bolt runs the fastest but he\'s not the fastest sprinter, in fact he might be second-best sprinter in his Jamaican team...
Posted by PK on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 4:07am
Great analysis Mark.
I do believe Yusuf is bang on - you have to factor that in as well. Wallace and Haywood have next to zero involvement in the offence - hence their *entire* job is to get in position for a rebound. Even though he's a favourite of mine, Amir is similar.
Posted by Tom Liston on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 9:21am
i don't mind the article, but the grammar is driving me nuts.
"an aside." is not a sentence.
end rant.
Posted by brennan on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 9:26am
PK, I don't see this so much as a criticism of Bosh's rebounding, but something that legitimizes his numbers.
Since rebounding has often been a knock on Bosh, Milner's sort of just taking a closer look to make sure that what's happening is real. When the rest of the schedule balances itself, the truth will come out.
The result may be that Bosh might not be the best rebounder in the league, but that he's nearly there speaks volumes to his improvement on the glass.
As for him being preoccupied in the offence and not available for as many rebounds as other players, you're absolutely correct. Rebounds are the only things players can blindly chase from the time they set foot on the court to the time they leave without hurting their team, so if Johnson DIDN'T have better numbers than Bosh then that would be more of a surprise.
Posted by Austin Kent on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 1:42pm
I know Austin, I'm just not much of a fan of deep, deep statistics analysis, sometimes it's better to see what's actually there instead of finding another (hidden) meaning...but of course, we'll see where's Bosh with rebs in April...
Posted by PK on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 4:06pm
I think the argument is fair that he may not be the best rebounder because of his % of offensive rebounds per opportunity, but how bout looking into the next step. What was his FG% on his second chance opportunities or in other words how many baskets did he make after pulling down that offensive rebound.
I would take Chris Bosh over most big men. He is versatile and quick for a PF/C. Plus he has great post moves.
Times yours....
Posted by Eric Roseman on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 7:10pm
I think the argument is fair that he may not be the best rebounder because of his % of offensive rebounds per opportunity, but how bout looking into the next step. What was his FG% on his second chance opportunities or in other words how many baskets did he make after pulling down that offensive rebound.
I would take Chris Bosh over most big men. He is versatile and quick for a PF/C. Plus he has great post moves.
Times yours....
Posted by Eric Roseman on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 7:11pm
I would also be curious to find out just how many of Chris Bosh's offensive rebounds are off of HIS misses. He's becoming better and better at shooting, grabbing his board, and then going up again. You can bet that he benefits more from his own misses than a lot of pure rebounders do (due to the fact that they're rarely shooting enough for it to influence the overall numbers).
Posted by Austin Kent on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 @ 7:21pm