At a press conference last week, Bob Costas introduced the starting pitcher the American League All-Star team as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. In doing so, he touched on a topic that has been on the minds of Toronto fans for some time now; how long will Roy Halladay stay in Toronto?
Baseball's best pitcher has been a Blue Jay his whole career and has been nothing less than a model employee. Having never experienced October play, however, he responded positively to the comments made by the increasingly-unpopular J.P. Riccardi that the Jays were entertaining trade offers for their ace.
If Halladay were to be traded, it would have to be to a team that is a virtual lock to make the post-season in order for him to waive his no trade clause. Of all baseball's top performers, the Los Angeles Dodgers are most likely to obtain Toronto's ace. Here's why:
Top team, top dollars: No team has a bigger lead in their division this year than the Dodgers and accordingly, they are the most likely to make the post-season. If Halladay's premier goal is to play in October, Los Angeles makes sense as there is nothing to indicate that any team in the National League West will catch the Dodgers for the division crown. The Giants have looked good from time to time, but with an injury to Randy Johnson and their offense's struggles it is unlikely they will pose any real challenge.
A team looking to obtain Halladay also has to have the kind of money necessary to take on a salary of just under $15 million a year through 2010. There is no doubt that Los Angeles can afford him. They can afford Manny Ramirez, they can afford to have Jason Schmidt on the DL and they can afford to have Juan Pierre as the best paid fourth outfielder in baseball. If they feel the need to add a big arm the Dodgers would not hesitate to take on Halladay's salary given the return of a dependable ace.
Far from home: J.P. Riccardi has stated that if the Yankees or the Red Sox, two teams potentially in the running for Halladay, want Halladay then they would have to put up an incredible offer. Why? Riccardi doesn't want his team to face Halladay if they don't have to. It is an unspoken guideline that GMs refrain from training stars within their own division. While it is questionable whether there is merit to the reasons they give for this practice, a trade to Los Angeles would help Riccardi avoid seeing his former ace in an opposing team's uniform.
Prospects, personnel: A team that trades for Roy Halladay will have to offer a very nice package if the Jays are to sell. With a team stacked with young stars such as Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Russell Martin, Los Angeles could clean out the farm system for Roy Halladay without risking too much down the line. Some have suggested that the Jays could look for Clayton Kershaw in return for Halladay but it is unlikely that the Dodgers would give up a Major League tested, young, talented pitcher for Halladay as his contract is up in 2010 and the Blue Jays have forbidden teams to discuss an extension with him before a trade is completed.
If Riccardi were especially astute, he would consider throwing in Vernon Wells' huge contract in exchange for the cheaper and more productive Juan Pierre. While it is unlikely that the Dodgers would be willing to take on a contract of the magnitude of Wells' considering that they are already full in the outfield, they could view Wells as a valuable fielder and power bat to protect against injuries and add more depth for a playoff run.
Familiarity with teammates: For a trade to be possible, Halladay will have to waive his no-trade clause. Having former teammates such as Orlando Hudson on the Dodgers will make it easier for him to transition to a new team. For some players it can be hard to go to a new team. For Halladay, however, who is a noted club house guy and possesses a world class work ethic, this will not likely be a problem.
Spotlight: Roy Halladay has enjoyed great success out of the spotlight in Toronto where he has quietly amassed 142 wins, a Cy Young award and now a starting spot in the All-Star Game. He has accomplished all of this on a team that is almost never on American national television. Halladay is soft spoken and diplomatic in interviews, preferring to do his work on the field. The Dodgers, on the other hand, play in a big market located in one of America's flashiest cities.
Just because the Dodgers play in a big, baseball-loving city, that doesn't mean that Halladay will have to contend with harsh media critiques and unruly fans. California baseball aficionados, unlike the fans in the American northeast, are notoriously affectionate and forgiving of their stars. Look at how Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez have been treated. Ramirez specifically provides Roy Halladay with added protection from the media as he is likely to garner most of the attention with his antics leaving Doc to pitch his way in the hearts of Los Angeles.
It is impossible to know for sure where Halladay will play in August, September and October. He has indicated that he thinks that his chances of leaving Toronto are no more than 50/50, but wherever he plays, baseball fans all across the continent should watch as he amasses his Hall of Fame credentials.
Current Comments
6 comments so far (post your own)Just finished an hour-long IM convo with Rob Boudreau about Vernon Wells' place in any potential Halladay deal.
Here's Toronto's chance to relieve themselves of a fairly costly (and often injured) burden. If a team wants Halladay bad enough, in this case LA, they may just suck it up and take on VW just to get the deal done.
It's not very often that you see assets valuable enough for teams to consider taking on additional liabilities, but Roy Halladay is that asset. Toronto has every right to get greedy when looking for possible suitors.
Or, you know, they could just keep him and try even harder for that wild card spot.
Posted by Austin Kent on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 @ 1:35am
If the Jays trade Halladay, it will basically seal the deal for another 10 years of mediocrity and should instantly cost Riccardi his job - not that he hasn't done enough to garner a boot.
Posted by Pope on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 @ 11:19am
I think it's because Wells has the brutal hamstring and massive contract that will make a team NOT take him just to get Halladay. A team is already going to have to overpay with young players just to get Halladay to begin with, I doubt they'll take on the $20+ million per year Wells with that and not only screw the farm system, but the current payroll as well. Halladay is great, but at this point, I think packaging him will Wells actually lowers his value. Package Rios instead. At least he has "raw talent", although that never seems to show up as much as his boneheadedness.
Realistically, if the Jays believe that trading Halladay will be best for the team, they should do so at the end of the season when they can get not only young players, but other teams will be more willing to part with Major League-ready talent as well, since they will obviously no longer be being used by the team that is trying to make a playoff run right now. That, and the Jays will get better compensation picks in the draft.
And Pope, if Riccardi does trade Halladay, why should THAT get him fired? Don't get me wrong, I don't like the guy, but the Jays ownership clearly know Halladay's on the block. If they didn't want Roy gone, shouldn't Riccardi have either been fired by now so he can't make that trade, or at least have been told to make it public knowledge that Roy will NOT be traded? Clearly, they trust Riccardi to make what he believes is the best move for the team. Just as long as that move isn't signing Marco Scutaro for 6 years at $12 million a year, let him do his job.
Posted by Rob on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 @ 6:39pm
He should have been canned a long time ago Rob you're right, but he wasn't - and I say that trading Doc should get him fired because I'm banking on him screwing up the deal. And yes, the ownership should pipe up and say that he is NOT on the block. I really don't see much else to say to that. But listening to The Fan590 the other day, the question came up, is it time to trade Halladay and pack it in for the Jays? Can Toronto actually be looked at as a baseball city anymore (or was it even to begin with) Everyone always says to put a winning product on the field and they'll get the attendance but in reality, were they not a winning team at the beginning of the season? And the place was still empty. It doesn't take a Sports Management degree to figure out that the dome (yes the dome) has more people in it when Doc takes the hill because "fans" know they're seeing the best pitcher in baseball and chances aer about 1-6 that you might see a complete game. So what's it really going to be like when he's gone? The end of Blue Jay baseball?
Posted by Pope on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 @ 7:08pm
Thought I'd join in on the fund:
Riccardi won't be fired for trading Roy despite the package he gets if the job done at all because at this point with Riccardi's track record we have to believe that no deal involving the team's best player will be processed without the approval of Toronto's senior management.
That being said, I think that the best time to trade Roy Halladay is now, not the end of the year. While I think Rob has a point in suggesting that the return of major league talent would be beneficial I don't think that we can expect to get adequate enough major league talent from a contending team for Roy at all (I say contending because Roy will not approve a trade to a team who is not a contender)- any team that is seriously hoping to win a championship will hold on to their Major League level proven talent and add Roy to it - its also not worthwhile to pick up lessor Major League players as our roster is already full of those. As a result, Roy is more valuable to a team who is getting ready for a playoff run and would be willing to sell some of the farm to get Roy for a year and a half.
On Wells - After some thought I do not think it is possible to move Wells. His bat speed is off, his hamstring is hurting and his contract is just too big.
Posted by Dave on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 @ 8:43pm
Also - you do not get compensation picks if you trade a player. The blue jays would only get compensation picks if they let Halladay's contract run out and he is signed as a type A free agent by another team.
Posted by Dave on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 @ 8:46pm